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Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/9/21

12:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And the chat has started, at the promised time!
12:02
Mike: I think it’s become pretty clear that Kyle Tucker is a top 30 player in baseball (5 OAA, 143 wRC+, .402 xwOBA, 1.5 BsR). When do you see him making the jump to top 20? End of 2022?
12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Development isn’t always a neat little line!
12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though 2022 seems like a good bet.
12:02
Who’s Fabio?: Hey Dan – CY candidate Robbie Ray’s success this season is due to his tight fitting uniform (obviously). Can the neural network explain how and why  this works for Ray?
12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sure, let me run this while I answer a few more questions.
12:02
Erik: Juan Soto has twice as many walks as strikeouts in the second half. How silly will his BB:K get in his best season?
12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It probably won’t get *that* much crazier.
12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Plate discipline changes, but usually not drastically. And it’s usually for a much better or worse approach, not getting even crazier.
12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though theoretically, he could get to Bonds levels and blow through the roof.
12:03
TT: Should people be concerned that Ian Anderson hasn’t shown much durability yet?  What is his projection over the next 3-5 years?
12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t worry much. Teams are being cautious and there was a whole year of not-full pitching.
12:04
John Olerud’s Helmet: Howdy Mr Dan! i finally made it to one of your chats and i love you! Have a wonderful day
12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Love me? That’s quite suspicious.
12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Let’s just say you only wish me generalized rather than specific harm?
12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski:
12:06
John Olerud’s Helmet: Oh wise one Mr Dan, so do you foresee the Blue Jays overtaking the Yanks for the divison/final wild card spot??
12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t, but it’s quite possible.
12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The good news for the Jays is the Yankees/Red Sox don’t play each other a bunch, unless I forgot some games.
12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think they have 3 games left.
12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: So more opportunities to gain ground on either
12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think which of the 3 AL East teams misses the playoffs is some theoretical triangle coin flip that isn’t really possible in the real world
12:07
barney gumble: hey dan. what do you think the deal is with Gary Sanchez? is he just an ok hitter instead of a great hitter?
12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That sounds about right.
12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s a good hitter. He’s not a great one.
12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think his bat speed is a little slower than few years ago
12:10
TT: Tyler Stephenson doesn’t get much ROY love, but that’s partially because of his teammate, India.  Stephenson is one of those few HS catchers who seems to be MLB successful.  What do you see as his ceiling?
12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Won’t comment on the ROY stuff since I’m voting.
12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Ceilings are tricky for catchers because they develop weird.
12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I’m actually fairly confident at this point he’s going to have a Kurt Suzuki-like career on-average, which is quite solid.
12:11
Jefferson: How hyped are you for Josh Lowe hype time? Will he get any run down the stretch or just be a pinch runner and 4th OF?
12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll work him into a significant number of games.
12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He was rocking WTF they call the International League now and Rays will trust their minor league talent.
12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: “Triple-A East”
12:13
TT: A lot of people ask about Logan Webb.  But, please inform how you see his future ability to handle a 180-200 IP workload, and whether he now has a #1 starter ceiling.
12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he will.
12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m stingy about calling pitchers aces because pitchers will break your heart.
12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I’d say that the vast majority of 2020 is real, and I think there’s still room for him to improve his changeup
12:15
TT: What’s the next season Baltimore will be over .500?
12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We might all be dead.
12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Let’s say 2024.
12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (Hopefully we’re not dead by 2024, it would suck to die that close to gett my Hall vote!)
12:15
Appa Yip Yip: The AL Wild Card race has descended into madness. Who are the SzymPicks to take the spots?
12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Boston, NY, but again, very three-way coin flippy
12:16
John B: Dan, I get frustrated when I see bWAR and fWAR vary by so much.  You basically can see players that are 1 WAR off in a world where most players are 2-3 WAR.  It seems to undermine the metric to have such wide variances.  I leave out WARP, but I’ve seen similar issues.  Why can’t there be more consistency to a stat that we all use every day? Why doesn’t MLB weigh in on how they want their official data presented ?
12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The thing is, you don’t count WAR
12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You *calculate* WAR. And you’re going to run into different philosophical concepts of establishing value
12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If you visit 8 doctors with a stomach ache, you may find that the recommended treatment isn’t identical either.
12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Some might recommend X medication, some X and Y, some may also make a point to suggest diet changes, some may see a need for further tests.
12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But it doesn’t undermine the practice of medicine that approaches are different.
12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You should think of statistics as an *exploration* of an answer, rather than something that will give you the One True Answer.
12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And sometimes, it’s complicated.
12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like pitch framing.
12:19
Dansby SwanSong: Loved Don Fehr’s speech representing Marvin Miller.  What a shame Miller’s induction came after his death.  After hearing the stories from Fehr my admiration for Miller increased.
12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Fehr did a good job succeeding Miller after the Ken Moffett mess.
12:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I did not watch the speeches. I’m not generally big on speeches that I’m not intending.
12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s a shame that Miller wasn’t inducted when he was alive.
12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s unfriggingbelievable that Bowie F’in Kuhn was in the Hall before Miller.
12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Bowie Kuhn in the Hall is like going to Cooperstown and finding out that Neifi Perez is in the Hall.
12:23
Guest: What do you make of Brendan Rodgers’ power outage at Coors Field? Is this something that young guys in COL have faced before?
12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Haven’t seen any systemic t hing.
12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Specific home/road splits aren’t very predictive at all.
12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Let’s put it this way: a hitter’s actual platoon splits doesn’t become as good a predictor of future platoon splits as generic platoon splits until you’re in the neighborhood of 3000 PA. Home/road splits are actually worse.
12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The instances of when you should care about a player’s actual home/road splits are *very* rare.
12:24
mcratsandwich: I may be living under a rock, but I have not heard anything about all the experimental rules that were instituted in the minors this year. Especially the moving of the mound back.
12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yup, they’re doing that!
12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski:
12:26
Guest: Is there a resource to see which hitters get the most accurate / inaccurate strike zones from umpires? Every time I see Nick Ahmed or Mark Canha at the dish, it seems that they’re getting balls called strikes, but I don’t want to rely on the eye test. Anywhere I can check this?
12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: An easy one? I’m not sure.
12:27
Guest: If you had a pitcher that you knew could come in and throw two pitches, and get two easy, perfect ground balls every single time they came in – but that’s it, only two pitches for two perfect ground balls, guaranteed – how do you think they’d be valued?
12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Very highly. They’re like a swiss army knife for tons of high-leverage situations
12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Basically, any time with one or two outs they kill it
12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Except in the case of a grounder the runner on 3rd scores on
12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We actually talked about this in our gamecast yesterday (these kind of theoreticals)
12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: the *guarantee* changes the value considerably.
12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A pitcher with an ERA of nine has no value
12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: BUT, a theoretical pitcher that allows exactly one run every inning, no more, no fewer, has a *lot* of value.
12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Once you have assumptions rather than probabilities, you can manipulate things.
12:30
Ben: What would you have thought before the season, if I told you that come Sept. Scherzer would lead the majors in ERA, Soto would lead the majors in OBP, and Trea Turner would lead in batting average, AND the Nationals would be in last place?
12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t even know that it’s all that crazy!
12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The Nats had a LOT of value in their top talent.
12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It was very easy to envision a scenario in which the wheels fell off horribly because of guys 5-26
12:33
Joe schlabotnik: do you think a team of 8 Ozzie albies would make the postseason
12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sure, as long as you don’t make me pitch him
12:33
Oriole fan: Did you see Cedric Mullens having a breakout year?  Where did he get his power?  Projections didn’t see it. The best story to come out of Birdland this year.
12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I did not!
12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And I’m still not sure where he got it.
12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m from Baltimore, so I’ll take it.
12:34
Guest: Are any active relievers gonna make the Hall?
12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Kimbrel could. So could Aroldis.
12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But not easy inductees. It may take a while
12:35
Guest: Trent Grisham – sophomore slump or just not the top 20 outfielder we thought he was going into this season (see: the Sporer and Mason pre-season rankings)?
12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Grisham’s not really performing out of line with projections
12:35
structural purist: Would the Cubs just release Heyward next year? I don’t know that Hermosillo is a great prospect, but it’s pretty hard to understand giving Heyward PAs now instead of him
12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they would.
12:35
Appa Yip Yip: Does ZiPS believe in Alejandro Kirk the way I believe in Alejandro Kirk?
12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Depends how much you believe in him. If it’s unabiding love, Steamer likes him more than ZipS
12:36
D: Maybe you’ve answered this before, but what was with the extremely high RBI projections for certain players in ZIPS? I’m thinking especially of Soto, who was projected for 141 RBIs. What is ZIPS seeing in him/his team?
12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I was surprised by the RBI totals coming into the season.
12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It was pretty much Soto.
12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I haven’t really dug into the issues.
12:37
Darb: Is Andrew Chafin the best player in baseball?
12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m going to guess no.
12:37
Mark I: Cedric Mullins is headed for 6 WAR this year. Is he a superstar going forward or does he settle into being a ~3 WAR guy in the future?
12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: LIkely some kind of regression, but it’s hard to have a season like that and have it not be real development.
12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS sees him as a 3-4 win player in 2022
12:38
Oriole fan: What should the Orioles give their non corporate season ticket holders for 2021 and 2022?  They certainly should be rewarded
12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: STEAMED CRABS
12:38
Pete: Guten Tag Dan! Do you see the Angels going after a big name SS this offseason? That would be so Arte to get a big bat instead of the pitching they desperately need right?
12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t know WTF the Angels are doing, honestly.
12:39
Appa Yip Yip: Who are you voting #1 for RoY?
12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: IMA GONNA TAP THE SIGN
12:39
TKDC: What are odds the Braves 4 infielders get to 30 home runs each this year? Is that something you could calculate with Zips?
12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS *can* do it, but it’ll take me some time as I’m not set up for this *specific* question.
12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But ZiPS now has three of the four with an over/under above 30 and Dansby at 29
12:41
Guest: My Crazy Friend says Spencer Torkelson is the best prospect in baseball. Who does ZIPS say is currently the best prospect in baseball?
12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can’t do that on the fly like this!
12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Probably Adley
12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But Torkelson will move up from 25
12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I don’t even have final minor league translations done yet
12:42
Darb: Looks like Marcell Ozuna is going to get off easy. Do you think he plays MLB next year?
12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll serve a stiff suspension, but if he settles without jail time, I can’t see him missing a whole year
12:42
Appa Yip Yip: The thing about fWAR and bWAR differentiating so much at times is that it allows you to just pick the number that looks better for your team’s players and worse for the other team’s players it is win/win
12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but you shoudln’t do that!
12:42
Dan’s Emotional Intimacy: No question but that WAR/Doctor analogy was fantastic.
12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Every writer is receptive to ego massaging!
12:43
TuffyGoeswich: Does ZiPS see Riley Greene as capable of being a starter next year for the Tigers?
12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t want to run it on the fly before translations are done, but I’d be surprised if the answer is no
12:44
Maddoning: Speaking of German, FRANK SCHWINDEL!  He’s not THIS good, but really, how real is Frank the Tank?
12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Color me skeptical
12:44
D: Semirelated to my other dumb question, how do you/ZIPS see Soto stacking as an all-time great? Feels like his track record is close to unmatched.
12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s WAY up there
12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Soto fights with Acuna and Tatis for more career WAR remaining
12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And the other two do have some unresolved injury issues!
12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If you held a gun to my head and said Cooperstown or no, I’d say Cooperstown
12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And then I’d call the police. WHY ARE YOU USING A GUN THIS WAY? They’re for fighting dangerous and delicious animals! You could’ve just asked me.
12:46
embracing differentials: I love watching run differentials for outliers each year. Seattle is -53 and 12 wins over .500. Luck isn’t real so how does this happen?
12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They have crazy-high offense this year in high-leverage situations
12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: seriously, in BR’s high leverage, they’re like at .820 OPS
12:46
fans and players: is the computer called strike zone in the near distant future?  I HATE seeing this inconsistent strike zone and catchers “stealing” strikes
12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I do think so
12:47
Big Qs: Shouldn’t the plural form of Luftbaseball and Fastball be the same?
12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Probably
12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My German is only good enough to speak with German relatives.
12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They probably make fun of my German when we’re not talking
12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And their English is way better than my German too! So I’m not sure why we usually talk in German
12:48
NL west enjoyer: is this year’s NL West the most difficult division ever?
12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ll say yes
12:48
New World: Did you name it Zips because there’s also a Z in your name?
12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes
12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I was using some of Voros’ theoretical DIPS stuff in projections and I was the first one other than Voros to do it, so I wanted it to rhyme.
12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (With V-man’s blessing)
12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: So I started with Szymborski Projection System. SIPS sounded like a trendy hipster cafe that only served 80s juice boxes.
12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: so I went with ZIPS since that was the next letter in my name.
12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And then I went with ZiPs because I liked CHiPs (second favorite as a little kid after Dukes of Hazzard)
12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Incidentally, my mom swears I learned to read at 3 basically so I could thwart them by reading TV guide when my parents said the Dukes weren’t on
12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but I kinda typoed it the first time as ZiPS. Jay had picked it up in his blog the day I released it, so I just went with that stylizing.
12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes, this is a stupid explanation and 100% true.
12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I didn’t realize anyone would give a crap about anything I wrote or did, so I didn’t really think that far ahead.
12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m *still* quite unsure why anybody read my work!
12:52
Jeff Wilpon: I enjoyed your recent Mets piece. If you were running the show in Queens what sorts of moves would you look to make this off-season?
12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think I’d aggressively try to land short-term free agents early in the offseason, like Scherzer and maybe Verlander. But if I fell short early, then I might focus on a bit of a retool, targeting 2023 and beyond.
12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Very cool, thanks!
12:53
Dalton Wilcox: Woodruff or Burnes moving forward?
12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: C. Milwaukee Burnes.
12:54
Hideki: TELL US WHO DIDNT VOTE FOR JETER
12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t know who didn’t!
12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They haven’t spken out.
12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s kind of good that I didn’t get into the BBWAA earlier and vote.
12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Because of the ten-player limit, I would not have voted for Jeter.
12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My priority is players with uncertainty around 75% and uncertainty around 5%.
12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And then players who need to start moving up because they’re running out of time.
12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A vote for a player who is absolutely certain to hit 75%, if you have more than 10 players you’d vote for, is worthless.
12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And I would have been public too, because I also believe in that transparency as a principle.
12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I can’t say I’m unhappy that I was unable to put myself in a position where ethics demanded I do something that resulted in my never being able to step in New York again!
12:57
Steve O: I appreciate that you acknowledge your fandom of the Orioles as a writer. Most writers say they’re not fans anymore but that’s gotta be eyewash right? I know they say it’s just a job, but that’s honestly hard to believe. Rooting interests are human. Even in a boxing match that I know nothing about, I’ll root for someone just because.
12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m a fan, but I’d be lying if it was the same as it was before I was a writer.
12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t live or die with fandom.
12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m from Baltimore and have been an O’s fan since I was a tyke. And all things being equal, I’d rather the O’s win.
12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I can’t see I’m emotionally *invested* in it all that much.
12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: say
12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It *is* hard to be a rabid fan about something you deal with professionally, especially in a role like mine where my objectivity is very important.
12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 12-year-old me would be seriously pissed off I’ve written so many positive pieces about the Yankees!
12:59
Erik: What’s the logic behind voters not being allowed to talk about awards they’re voting for ahead of time? Avoiding campaigns  or something? Seems like it could make for a lot of insightful articles if we saw voters’ thought processes throughout the season.
12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s a big one.
1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They want people thinking of this when they cast their ballot, not as an ongoing thing over the season where you get early season assumptions built in
1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And for marketing reasons, they also want a big reveal!
1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: As always, I’ll walk readers through the processes of
1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: me doing *my* ballot.
1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I literally spend 12-15 hours of the final weekend of the season putting together ballots the year I have a vote
1:01
baseball crank: I bet my friend $100 that spencer torkelson wouldn’t be in the majors in 2021. what should I do with the $100?
1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: TACOS WHILE YOUR FRIEND WATCHES
1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I had a couple slices of roast pork I made yesterday.
1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Justinian’s sleeping on the couch in my office.
1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia (Cassie) is sitting on my lap glaring at him across the room while he sleeps.
1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Mercutio was asleep on the kitchen counter last I saw because the dishwasher was on (heat)
1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and I can hear Constantine playing with upstairs nearly directly above me. It’s not Mercutio because Mercutio is a giant frigging cat and thumps a lot more
1:04
Guest: Just roll a d6 and make 1 and 2 =1, 3and 4 = 2, and 5 and 6 = 3.
1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I WANT A THREE SIDED 3D OBJECTY
1:04
Luke: How concerned are you about Sixto’s health? Is there any history of pitchers coming back from a similar surgery?
1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Moderately. There’s some, but it’s quite varied
1:04
Darb: So newcomers for the 2024 ballot include Arod, Mauer, Beltre, Beltran, Utley, and Big Papi. On a limitless ballot, who has your vote?
1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t have the vote yet that year!
1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though I would vote for all of these
1:05
Jeff in T.O.: Aroldis in the Hall? Even with the gunshot suspension?
1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think so
1:05
Szymbolism: How did Tampa let Cronenworth slip through their fingees? Seems like he’s just their type of player. Caveman brain move from Erik Neanderthal
1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not every move is going to work out!
1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: From the Rays point of view, he looked a lot like the B+ 2B/3B guy they can develop a million of
1:05
mcratsandwich: Guess my question was cut-off. About the experimental rules, what have you heard? Any results?
1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Mixed results generally. Some people happy, some not.
1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: What happens from here is beyond my ability to gauge!
1:05
Pat G: What is the aging curve for ace level starters like Scherzer? Should we be looking for a cliff? or do you foresee a few more years of gradual decline?
1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hitters age, pitchers break.
1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But Scherzer is getting ot the age where aging *does* start to be an issue
1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Generally speaking, looking at non-injured pitchers, it’s quite a gentle slope until you get to around 38
1:07
Dalton Wilcox: Your take on statistics is nice. Do you get frustrated by how stats are treated in the mainstream or is that just part of the give and take? We’re a nation of D math students but everyone knows what athletes should be doing and how much they should be paid!
1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It would be nice if probability was better understood!
1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I’d rather have these fights than still having to convince people that OBP and SLG were useful
1:07
tz: Dan, how much do you want for the rights to start a “SipS” hipster juice box cafe?  Sounds like a retro/ironic type hit for the age 20-35 crowd….
1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You can have it for free! I ain’t running a restaurant unless I’m a billionaire and if I’m a billionaire, I’m not doing that work!~
1:08
Chats: Do these chats generate the most clicks?  If you guys guaranteed a chat every day at noon – I have to imagine site traffic would increase… these are the most interesting reads IMO.  Particularly you, eric, kevin
1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure, I’m actually generally unaware of traffic for different things.
1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Same at ESPN. I never knew how my stuff did.
1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And I figure that if nobody tells me anything, then it’s something that’s not my problem, and that’s what I prefer!
1:10
DJ: What potential World Series matchup would you most like to see?
1:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Royals-Cubs. Because if we got there, then something ABSOLUTELY CRAZY happened the last three weeks of the 2021 season
1:10
Appa Yip Yip: Haven’t you been writing about baseball for like twenty years? How long does it take to get HoF votes? GERONTOCRACY
1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Essentially, I never asked to be in the BBWAA for a long time, even though I could have been eligible in 2010, because I didn’t want to take the ego hit if I were turned down.
1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Eventually, Jeff Passan told me to stop being a wuss and got me to talk to Trent Rosecrans about it.
1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In 2016.
1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Which was the kick in the butt I needed
1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m very inertia-prone in my life. I have a good, low-stress, low-drama life where I’m comfortable and happy. So my natural inclination is not to upset the apple card.
1:13
Key Flaw: I don’t listen to podcasts, so I’ve never heard your last name pronounced. Is it pronounced like a good Polish name should be, or is it in a way that would make my Polish grandma sad.
1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I would guess grandma would be sad.
1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I use a hard z because the first syllable of my last name is atrocious in the original Polish.
1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And I’m not close with any other Szymborski in the family.
1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m far closer with my mom’s relatives, which means Germans and Ukrainian Jews.
1:14
Big Joey: Do you think Bellinger bounces back in 2022, or is he cooked? Got him in a dynasty league
1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll bounce back, but I’m worried
1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like KG said yesterday, his bat looks SLOW
1:15
Joe: It’s my birthday so you have to answer: Is Ryan Mountcastle good?
1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Good? Yes.
1:15
David: How much does a bad/very bad rookie year (Kelenic) weigh into future zips reporting? Looks like he was looking at 1.8 WAR for next year in Zips, fair to expect that to drop quite a bit?
1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’ll get his minor league performance while will help the projection from bottoming out!
1:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And I haven’t checked his zstats lately
1:16
Thunderclap Jackson: For mcratsandwich, Effectively Wild recently covered some of the rule changes on episode 1738 with RJ Anderson discussing his article on the  how its gone in the Atlantic league
1:16
shawshank: any insight on why the nl is dragging their feet on the dh other than more higher paid jobs?
1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like me: inertia
1:16
Big Joey: Is it crazy to comp Wander to Tony Gwynn but with more pop?
1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s not going to hit for average like Gwynn
1:16
shawshank: when do you start running zips for the following season in general?  does it change season to season?
1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m always working on SOMETHING
1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There are usually versions of ZiPS that are 2-3 years from me being confident enough to make the “current” build
1:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I like a couple years of additional new data before *any* aspect goes live
1:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve been working on pitcher percentile calibration for four years and I’m still not completely happy
1:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to take off for another week!
1:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone, it’s always appreciated!
1:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Surprisingly on-topic for a SzymChat!
1:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (Playing Final Fantasy IV pixel remaster btw)
1:19
Non standard dice: including d3, d5, d7, d14, d16, d24, and d30, plus the normal d4, d6, d8, d10, d12, and d20.
https://www.amazon.com/Unusual-Approved-Dungeon-Crawl-Classics/dp/B00Y…


 

Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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